November Market Update 2024
Harvest is well underway in South Australia, the northern regions of Victoria and southern New South Wales. Farmers in the south of Victoria are also gearing up to commence their harvest operations very soon. Encouragingly, there are reports of yields exceeding expectations in some areas despite the low rainfall we have seen this year in the majority of cropping regions.
The scattered storms that have impacted SA and VIC regions over the past month have led to increased demand for fallow spraying post-harvest and as hay season finishes up. With more rain forecast over the next few weeks, we encourage you to consult with your local Crop Smart representative to organise your requirements for the coming summer spraying season.
Our Seed Variety Guide for 2025 is now available on our website, including new varieties available to order through your local Crop Smart store. Please note some varieties are only available in limited quantities so it’s important to get your order in to ensure supply. If you’re looking for a seed variety not listed, please reach out to your local Crop Smart rep to confirm availability as we are also able to order additional varieties that may not be listed in the guide.
As we begin to look ahead to 2025, we’re also recommending planning ahead for any crop nutrition requirements you’re going to need so we can help get you organised before the start of sowing. If you need any assistance with this reach out to your local rep or contact our Crop Smart Nutrition Manager Ryan Sheridan.
Fertiliser Update
In fertiliser markets, nitrogen prices softened slightly as the market awaits the outcome of India’s latest tender. Buyers in key markets may delay activity until early 2025, with the tender outcome expected to guide pricing and demand direction.
Phosphate markets have been buoyed by strong demand from Ethiopia, which recently issued a substantial tender for 1.27 million tonnes of DAP, attracting offers from China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia with shipments scheduled through to February. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is in the market for 200,000 tonnes of DAP/TSP, which could influence regional supply and demand balances. A new US import duty of 16.81% on Moroccan phosphates has impacted Moroccan export prospects to the US, with Moroccan producer OCP instead focusing on shipments to Europe, while Saudi Arabia’s Maaden is supplying India.
Following Trump’s election victory, foreign exchange markets have largely stabilised, with many analysts/’experts’ viewing the outcome as bullish for the US dollar. Speculation remains strong that his policy directions could elevate inflation and drive interest rates up. The US dollar gained strength with improved consumer sentiment, while protectionist policy concerns weighed on the Euro.
Trump’s policies are widely seen as dollar-positive, reinforcing expectations for inflation and potential interest rate hikes. The Australian dollar tested resistance at 0.6680 before declining to 0.6458 at the time of writing, signalling a more bearish outlook influenced by a weaker yuan and falling commodity prices.
Locally we did see UREA soften a little albeit zero demand outside of Summer Croppers & pasture – we expect to see this market remain relatively stable for the short-term whilst the current India tender plays out. Phosphate enquiries have ramped up in the past fortnight as customers look to get some cover for the 2025 plant. The key watch for the moment is the USD/AUD, to put in perspective a $0.01 movement in the Australian dollar equates to approx. $16 tonne locally – hence the focus!
All the best for a successful harvest and as always, please reach out the Crop Smart team if there is anything we can assist you with.
