December Market Update 2024
As harvest begins to wrap up in some regions, it’s great to see some positive results across our network after what has been a very dry and challenging season. Looking back a few months ago, in some area’s yields were predicted to be far below average due to the low rainfall during the growing season. However, many are now seeing average or above average yield results.
Most areas in SA are well into their harvest with some regions looking to have it wrapped up before the Christmas break. We have seen a mixed bag of results due to the lack of moisture, frost and now a wet finish, which has all factored into these results. Parts of the Yorke Peninsula and Eyre Peninsula were pleasantly surprised by their yields. Several growers we have spoken to have suggested that where they applied their summer spray effectively has returned the best results in such a dry season. The SA Mallee has been challenging to say the least, with several customers mentioning it’s the toughest season they have ever seen. They are now at the back end of their harvest and looking forward to a favourable 2025 – Onwards and upwards!
Over in the Victorian Mallee, harvest is ending after a frustrating result for many with rain delays and some downgraded crops. Most growers are happy to put 2024 behind them and look forward to making use of the stored moisture that has come at an unfortunate time but will hopefully pay dividends next season. In North Eastern Victoria and Southern New South Wales, it has also been a challenging end with more rainfall during the start of harvest than what some growers had received all growing season. Harvest is now drawing to a close with yields being average or slightly above average in some regions.
Fertiliser update
Globally the phosphate markets remain somewhat stable supported by steady demand in international MAP and DAP sectors. Nitrogen prices have risen, while the Australian dollar hovers around 63 cents. Speculation continues regarding the AUD’s volatility due to current trade and political risks, which could impact the currency in the months ahead.
Nitrogen
India has issued a major tender for 1.5 million tonnes of urea to be shipped by February 10, exceeding market expectations of 1 million tonnes for January. This has caused supply disruptions, further tightened by seasonal gas cuts in Iran affecting their production. India’s move means markets like the USA and Australia will now have to compete for supply, resulting in increases of approx. $30/tonne in the past fortnight. In the medium term if India secures the full tendered urea volumes, prices could rise further to attract supply. However, as we have seen in the past, they may take less tonnage than requested, which could result in a softening. At the time of writing Urea is trading at around $720 tonne ex Port.
Phosphates
Saudi Arabia is increasing DAP exports to India, while Saudi Arabia is shipping to Australia, Bangladesh, and East Africa. Moroccan phosphates (MAP & DAP) offers are priced higher than buyers expect or prepared to pay. Prices are climbing in the USA due to winter demand. Short-term stocks are expected to remain tight as we enter 2025, with India staying active in the market due to strong demand and lower-than-expected inventories and China imposing quotas on exports. At the time of writing MAP is trading at around $1080 tonne ex Port, note collection windows are now pushing into March 2025 with early tonnages committed.
Currency
The Australian dollar continues to trade within its range of USD0.63 – 0.64 but struggles against expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance after the latest rate decision.
On behalf of all of us here at Crop Smart, we’d like to thank you for supporting us this year. As one of the only remaining independent and Australian owned crop protection companies in the market, your support means a lot to our small team. The opportunity to support and work with the local farming communities that support us is one we deeply appreciate. We wish you all the best for the remainder of the harvest season and hope you can enjoy a well-deserved break over summer. We look forward to working with you again in 2025.
