Market Update September 2024
Staying Positive in a Challenging Season
Across our network it’s very tough out there. The weather hasn’t been on our side, and we’re all hoping for a late rain to turn things around. For those of you that have had some recent rain, well done, your farm is one of the lucky ones this season. For those that have missed out, hang in there, and remember we’re here to support you through this unpredictable season.
Ag Chem Update:
- Supply is good overall, except for Omethoate (expect delays until October)
- Pricing is mostly stable
- Paraquat remains at very low prices
- Glyphosate has increased slightly (about 10c/L for 450g/L)
Remember that prices are still historically low, but there’s no guarantee they will stay that way for long. If you need to stock up for summer, it’s definitely worth looking at. Experience tells us the Chinese manufacturers don’t ever like to keep prices too low for too long so expect them to find any reason to lift pricing from here. Well done to those who purchased from us in June when we gave the inside mail, it now looks like a very astute purchase!
Paraquat and Diquat Regulatory Changes:
A reminder again on the proposed changes by the APVMA that could impact paraquat and diquat usage:
- Spray Seed (Paraquat/Diquat) to have a max rate of 800ml. Only registration is prior to crop establishment
- Maximum rate of 800ml/ha for paraquat pre-sowing
- Maximum rate of 400ml/ha for paraquat spray topping
- Loss of all pre-harvest registrations for diquat
- No desiccation registration for paraquat
If you’re concerned about these changes, we encourage you to submit their feedback to the APVMA before October 29th via the link below:
Fertiliser Update
Nitrogen
India is buying over 1 million tonnes in their latest tender, helping soak up extra supply from September and October production, which is expected to keep prices steady globally. A wide range of manufacturers are supplying these tonnes including the Arab Gulf, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Iran. Egyptian prices have risen slightly to $350/tonne FOB, influenced by European traders taking positions.
Phosphates
Internationally India secured 160,000 tonnes of DAP from Saudi Arabia and Russia. China are yet to announce their Quarter 4 export quotas, keeping prices stable.
Some background on Chinese phosphates and why they are so important: The latest data shows Chinese phosphate exports continue to fall short of the 3-year average, which was already low due to the government-imposed export restrictions in recent years.
In 2021, China was the top exporter in the world, shipping over 10 million tonnes of DAP/MAP, with nearly 7 million tonnes by July. They were more than 3 million tonnes ahead of Morocco, the second-largest exporter.
In 2022, exports dropped sharply to 5.5 million tonnes, nearly half the previous year’s total. Rising phosphate prices and tight global inventories, driven by fears surrounding Russia and high grain demand, led the Chinese government to restrict exports to protect their farmers. You can argue the strategy worked for China, but it also reduced global supplies.
In 2023, exports improved to 7 million tonnes, better than the year before but still below normal levels. While this gave hope that China was on track to return to its previous export volumes in 2024, the current data shows that supply issues remain, keeping phosphate prices high.
Over the coming months our focus will be on China for exports and India for purchasing. Additionally, Morocco and Russia continue to be major phosphate suppliers with increasing production capacity expected to support future demand and fill some of the gap left by China reducing exports. Whilst we don’t expect prices to move higher locally, if the pieces move the right way, we expect prices to soften in the coming months.
Thanks again for your support the last few months, we really appreciate you supporting an Australian owned company. We’re hoping for a cool and productive finish to the cropping season. If we can help you out with anything over the next month please reach out to one of the team.
